As I start to write this blog, China is returning to Normal, after battling for months with Corona Virus, while the whole world is still struggling to cope with this yet un-treatable disease. As I am tapping my fingers on the keypad, thoughts are flooding my mind and want to flow out from my fingers to the keypad & to this blog. This event of 2020, will go down in history books as a turning point, a point: as big as world wars of 20th century. When the experts were expecting cyber war as WW-III, it came out from an unexpected corner of Biological-war.
How will India cope with this? As I am writing, India is set to register it’s 1000th Corona Virus case. There is complete lock-down, no trains, no buses, no private vehicles on road. And as of now, this seems to be only handle to cope & fight Corona Virus. Govt is buying time through lock-down and delaying the volcanic eruption. The preparedness done by govt in this time will be tested in months of April & May. God knows what’s in store for India and tough time are ahead.
What will happen if USA/Europe type situation hits India? As I write, USA Corona Virus cases has sky-rocketed from 50,000 to 130,000 in just 4 days. And Europe seems to have given up, as Corona Positive cases and death cases are rising exponentially. And if USA, Europe type situation arises in India, then god save humanity. The scale of death will be something world has not seen since Partition of India in 1947. Forget 5 trillion economy, India will be set back by at least a decade, may be back to 1 trillion economy. I pray, nothing of that happens. Time to resort to Ramayan and Mahabharat.
Why mass migration is happening from Delhi only. Why not from other mega metros like Mumbai, Surat, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai? As I write, lacs are leaving NCR (National Capital Region) and heading to their home town in UP/Bihar, by WALK. Yes, walk-100s of KMs. And as usual, politics first pour in such situation rather than humanitarian help. This can be India’s achilles’ heel in preparation & effort to contain Coroba Virus.
As I write, major thoughts that is coming, Is world going to change post Corona Virus?And thumping answer is YES. Yes, in a big way.
- I predict: China will replace USA, as the big-bully boy of the world. May be USA/Europe together will try to fight out China. May be countries around world will sue China for starting & pushing this disease across the world. May be govt across world will question the credibility of global institutions like UN, WHO etc. But all these will go in vain, exactly the same way, nothing could not be done against USA in last 4-5 decades. So, China will call all the shots, hence forth.
- I predict: whole world (except China) will go into recession. And this recession will be bigger than the last seen in 2009. As I write, consumption cycle has already been broken & it’s just a start. Even if Corona Virus is defeated say by May 2020 (being very optimistic), it’s after-impact on consumption cycle is going to stay for at least a year and all this translates to lower economic growth, in a capitalist world.
- I predict: A big disruption will happen in all the sectors of the economy. Whether it’s tourism, or hospitality or construction or healthcare or govt spending on military etc, all will see both positive and negative disruptions. More on this, down the blog.
- Govt across world has to now protect themselves against not only military aggression, but also in fronts like cyber-war, Bio-terrorism & Global warming. Till date military tags (& sacrifice) were given only to Army, Navy & air-force. But this honor will be extended to people in Cyber-warfare, Doctors/nurses/researchers working in field of healthcare & medicine, climate activists, conservatives etc. A big chunk of investment will finally see a shift from military to these fields.
- A big boost to artificial intelligence, big data, robots will be there. Although this is already happening, but these sectors will see now more accelerated rise in terms of acceptance, adoption and implementation in real world. Expecting robots taking over the traditional human help present in shops, restaurants, hotels etc. The traditional form of military (human beings) in army, navy & air-force will be taken over by robots (the jobs of driver, sailors & pilots will be taken over by AI/Robots/drones etc.).
There is a debate going on : Whether to have a complete Lock down or not. India, has resorted to complete lock-down, where as USA has resorted to limited lock-down. Lock-down results in complete shut down of economic activity and thus a big set back to math of GDP. But, in my opinion India has done good by resorting to complete lock-down (in fact: feel, it was bit late, may be by a week). Many people, media houses, seem to opposing complete country lock-down, but I believe: “Economy is because of people and not the other-way round. You can revive a dead economy, but not dead people”. Thus, unlike USA, India has taken good, yet tough decision of going for complete shut-down, with on-set of Corona Virus.
Closer home, till date (29th March 2020), things that are working in India’s favor):
- India is currently being headed by a Pied Piper. And whatever he says, a good % of population follows. And that’s the reason behind, that he is able to take some tough decision like complete lock-down.
- Lock-down decision, when Corona Virus was in Stage-II, seems to be helping India, by delaying the onset of community transfer stage of stage -III and giving much needed precious time to govt machinery for preparedness.
- Shut-down of public transport like trains, buses. 1st time in India’s rail history of >150 years, not a single passenger train in running across country. Even, during massacre of 1947 division, trains were running. This shows the seriousness of problem & it’s demand for an unusual & extra-ordinary step that needs to be taken.
- What’s not in favor of India?
- Population. 135 crore in numbers. But bigger problem than number is 135 crore opinions to deal with Corona Virus.
- Politics. The vulnerable section has been turned into a passing pillow, with one state transferring to other state, to keep their numbers/tension/liability down.
- People. The certain % population’s callous attitude like not obeying rules & orders, not obeying hygiene & etiquette, will be big threat to whole country and can spread the Corona Virus like a wild fire.
POST CORONA VIRUS
Scenario: If India escapes the wrath of Corona Virus, which USA, Europe, China faced, who takes the credit?
I bet a big politics will be played on it. Govt will take all the credit for it’s decision making on Lock-down and handling of overall situation, where as the some section of Lutyen’s media and Buddhijivi, will site numerals technical papers & give credit to high temperature of summer, going in favor of India. I feel, if India is lucky to escape: a big % credit will go to Govt decision on lock-down, a certain % to Indian resistance to poor environment (sad but true, we are used to live in one) & may be small % to high temperatures.
Scenario: How will world interact with China, post Corona Virus?
- Immediate most countries will be in recession and occupied so much in that, nothing much they can do.
- Post that, some countries will file cases against China, in their respective countries & International court of justice. But respective countries court cannot hold China responsible, for obvious reason of jurisdiction. In ICJ, China will have such a hold, that outcome will be NIL.
- Few countries may severe economic ties with China, but it may prove to be slow poison of their own economy itself, unless they compensate it, with ties with countries like India etc.
- A good number of countries will restrict their ties with China to limited extent, may ban Chinese tourist.
- Many countries will officially name the Corona Virus to Chinese Virus or Wuhan Virus.
- At home, a good % Indians will boycott Chinese goods, which will give boost to domestic industry, few big corporations (looking for alternative to China) will opt for India as alternative manufacturing center. Thus, in 2-3 years, after battling recession, I feel India Economy should boom big way.
- Nevertheless, after all this world politics will be changed. China would replace USA as world’s (Immoral) Police. China will take over USA, in calling shots in world institutes like UN, WHO, IMF etc.
- And if India gets tough, decisive , non-corrupt & positive leadership, it can get the tag as alternative to China and can become No.2 and get Permanent seat in UN Security council.
Disruptions we will be seeing or get acceleration, due to Corona Virus:
- Medical research will be treated in par with Military research and thus govt spending in the sector will increase. Also People working in the sector will be treated in par with military.
- Physical Distancing Industry: Post Corona Virus, a new concept of “physical distancing” will gain importance, resulting in greater adoption of Robots etc. in field of Hospitality Industry (hotels/ restaurants), hotels, shops, Malls, Super market. Robots will take a big way. Already, happening shift of “offline” to “online” will get a big boost and e-commerce industry, driver-less vehicle industry will see greater acceptance & adoption. All This will result in mass unemployment.
The physical distancing industry will be coined and grow the way “Uber” concept grew. Uber concept was about connecting: “provider and receiver” directly. The physical distancing industry will take the concept a step ahead, connecting provider & receiver directly, but not physically.
- Tourism industry will be shock for at least 2 years. People will refrain from travel, with the concept of “physical distancing”. All resulting in un-employment.
- War-fare industry: Even existing forms of military: Army, Navy & Air force will see a big shift towards adoption of AI, robots, drones. Overall, resulting in lesser absorption of human beings within it’s fold.
- Communication: Work from home acceptance across sectors will increase & adopted. Online conference, education, classes, counselling, will see more audience.
- Employment Shift: Although this phenomena is already happening and it’s origin cannot be attributed to Corona Virus, but the the shift be accelerated because of Corona Virus. Employment will shift up the chain, i.e. to field which demand more skills & education. Employment will move from “offline” to “Online”, will move from “field” to “desktop”, will move from “physically demanding” to “mentally demanding”.
- UBI: Mass unemployment across various sectors will result in govt passing laws like Universal Basic Income. And govt like Indian, have realized the importance of UBI, in scenarios like Corona Virus.
- On Global Warming: Lot of data will be out, showing positive impact on environment post lock-down. These data will encourage many countries across world to force lock-downs couple of times in a year.
- Mass surveillance (& Technology): Till date, China is the only country which does mass surveillance and this technology has helped countries like China, South Korea, Taiwan to reign in Corona Virus. This will make many countries to re-think on their take on mass surveillance, and many will finally adapt these technologies to handle these war kind of scenarios.
- In world politics: disruption will be China replacing USA as the DON. India will gain in long term (beyond 3yrs).